The Distant Future

S†MoN® says:

The Distant Future: It is Closer than You Think
The animation industry is about to take another leap forward in the development quality of realistic images. In the near future, more advanced techniques will allow the use of high poly models. The differences will be astounding. Other major innovations are underway which will allow artists to create visual simulations that will become a true virtual reality to the users.
Most people have played a video game and have said to themselves: "Wow, that character is realistic!"
Imagine doing that when the character has natural looking tears and droplets of sweat emitting from the pores of their skin.
The technology for advanced gaming is tied directly to the innovations that are occurring in the field of animation. The motion picture industry will spend as much money on one animated movie as the U.N. will spend on AIDS research during a given year. This enormous amount of money is allowing companies like Alias, XSI, Discreet, and Newtek to spend large amounts of capital on R&D. This driving force is behind many of the innovations that have made movies like "Finding Nemo" and "Shrek". New movies with even more advanced and arguably better animation quality are out.
Pear’s new movie "Cars", released in 2006, was a frontrunner in displaying many of these new technologies and techniques. Another fascinating movie that was made by Fathom studios is called "Delgo"*. This may indicate that one of the major innovations of animation technology is the new ability of smaller organizations, and even eventually individuals to make feature link films.
* Delgo is an upcoming animated feature film by the independent Atlanta-based Fathom Studios. Delgo's release has been postponed several times (pre-production began in 1998) in part due to the death of Anne Bancroft (one of the lead voices)

Some aspiring individuals and groups are already putting this theory into practice. Many of these films and commercials are available on the internet and are free to view and enjoy. The innovation exists out there.
When you look at some of these films sequences, you will see that the new crop is tending to have more and more elaborate textures and models. The lighting is becoming more reactive and realistic. The models are not yet high poly in video games for instance, but they are tending to be in animation. Soon we will all have some very nice entertainment to look forward to. I look to the day when John Wayne will again take to the silver screen and say "saddle up". Arnold Schwarzenegger “will be back!”.
3D animation future is brighter. It will make the execution process faster. The age of computing has not even begun. What we have today are tiny toys not much better than an abacus. Traditional computing, with its ever more microscopic electric circuits fixed in silicon, can take us only so far:
Moore's Law* dictates that the amounts of computing power you can squeeze into the same space will double every 18 months.
* Moore's Law describes an important trend in the history of computer hardware: that the number of transistors that can be inexpensively placed on an integrated circuit is increasing exponentially, doubling approximately every two years. The observation was first made by Intel co-founder Gordon E. Moore in a 1965 paper. The trend has continued for more than half a century and is not expected to stop for a decade at least and perhaps much longer. Almost every measure of the capabilities of digital electronic devices is linked to Moore's Law: processing speed, memory capacity, even the resolution of digital cameras. All of these are improving at (roughly) exponential rates as well. This has dramatically changed the usefulness of digital electronics in nearly every segment of the world economy. Moore's Law describes this driving force of technological and social change in the late 20th and early 21st centuries.


3D animation will be somehow cheaper. It could go as low as half a filming budget. Soon enough, we will say goodbye to cast, wardrobe, location, and all the risks that might occur on a single shoot. You can create a whole scene under the rain without getting wet. And build a devastating car crash set without a single slightly injured stunt.

End Note
Science fiction, right? Sure - just like satellites, moon shots, and the original microprocessor once were. To some, this scenario is conservative. Ask scientists to predict how technology will change the world over the next 20 years or so, and their imaginations go wild. Our grand-children will barely realize the good fortune they, and the world, have inherited.